While Paris prepares for the official Olympic kickoff on Friday, an immovable object will collide with an unstoppable force.
The venue is Nice, the coastal city that hosted the final stage of the Tour de France a few days ago and is one of the hosts for the Olympic soccer tournament. On Thursday, that’s where the enigmatic US women’s soccer team will face an upstart team from Zambia.
Typically, the US women have little trouble against countries that have scant soccer traditions. Five years ago and about 950km away in Reims, the USA drilled 13 goals past Thailand, sparking a national debate over the Americans’ wild celebrations against an overmatched World Cup opponent. At the 2023 World Cup, the USA outshot Vietnam 28-0 in their opener, though they only put three in the net.
Why is this game different? Check the NWSL standings. The unbeaten Orlando Pride sit in first place. And if you’re looking for reasons why the Pride lead the league, look at the list of the top scorers in the NWSL, where the first name on the list is Barbra Banda, who plays for Zambia.
The 24-year-old forward’s success is no surprise. Three years ago in Tokyo, she had a hat-trick against the Netherlands and another against China. Orlando signed Banda earlier this year for the second-highest transfer fee ever paid in women’s soccer — $740,000. The highest transfer fee – $787,600 – was paid a few weeks before that, when Bay FC signed Racheal Kundananji. Kundananji also plays for Zambia.
Are we looking at an upset that could turn the world of women’s soccer upside down, propelling Zambia to the best finish in a major global tournament by an African nation since Nigeria reached the 1999 World Cup quarter-finals? (Nigeria also reached the 2004 Olympic quarter-finals, but only 10 teams were in the tournament that year.)
Probably not.
Rewind to Zambia’s aforementioned Olympic opener in Tokyo against the Netherlands. Yes, Banda had a hat-trick, but Zambia lost that game 10-3. Banda’s second hat-trick, along with a goal from Kundananji, held up for a 4-4 draw with China. Their final group match, against Brazil, was a little less fun and ended in a 1-0 victory for the South Americans, a result that eliminated Zambia from the tournament.
Last year, Zambia returned to the elite stage in the World Cup and took their first win at that level, defeating Costa Rica 3-1, with Banda and Kundananji each scoring. Before that, though, they lost by identical 5-0 scores to Spain and Japan, two teams that know how to keep the ball away from a dangerous opponent.
Still, Zambia took a stunning victory against Germany in a World Cup tuneup last year, giving up two goals after the clock hit 90 minutes but taking a 3-2 decision on Banda’s winner 12 minutes into stoppage time.
And in this year’s pre-Olympic friendlies, the USA haven’t looked ready to reclaim the mantle as the top team in the world. In their last two games, the US women beat Mexico 1-0 and drew Costa Rica 0-0.
Take note, though, of those zeroes. The US women see that score a lot.
Because if Banda is the unstoppable force, Naomi Girma is the immovable object.
From Joy Fawcett and Carla Overbeck in the 1990s through to Becky Sauerbrunn in the 2010s, central defenders have typically been a strength of the US women’s team. By the time she finishes her career many years from now, the 24-year-old Girma may be remembered as the best of the best.
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Girma made her national team debut two years ago, just after finishing her career at Stanford. The same year, she won NWSL Rookie of the Year and Defender of the Year honors, an unprecedented double. She repeated as Defender of the Year in 2023. She was also the first full-time defender to be named US Soccer’s Female Player of the Year in 2023.
Like a lot of players in her position, Girma’s best games often render her invisible, as she quietly shuts down the most potent attacking force on the opposition. Stats don’t tell the story, though she has completed 91% of her passes, tied with Sauerbrunn and Isabella Obaze for the NWSL lead among defenders. A reel of her top plays will include a couple of instances in which she outruns an attacking player and plays the ball with poise, but the more common highlight is simply a case of her being in the right place at the right time to stifle an attack.
As fascinating as it’ll be to see if Girma and the US back line can contain Banda, the bigger questions for the Americans are up front. In last year’s World Cup, Girma and the US defense did their jobs, giving up just one goal in four games, but the punchless attack went nearly four hours without scoring after Lindsey Horan’s equalizer in their second game. They sorely missed Rose Lavelle, the 2019 World Cup Bronze Ball winner and one of the US women’s best playmakers ever, in the round of 16, when Sweden eliminated the USA on penalties after a 0-0 draw.
Lavelle’s fitness may again be the biggest problem facing the US at the moment. She sat out the 0-0 draw with Costa Rica with groin tightness. Seeing Lavelle come back and spark the offense to a couple of goals against Zambia would soothe a few nerves among US fans.
The bigger tests for the US women lie ahead. On 28 July, the opponent is Germany. Three days later, it’s Australia, though Matildas star Sam Kerr will unfortunately miss out due to an ACL injury.
Thursday’s game should be enjoyed in its own right, though. It has the potential to be a high-scoring barnburner. And in the game within the game, one of the world’s best offensive forces takes on one of the world’s most formidable defensive walls.
Not a bad way to get things rolling even before the opening ceremony.