Hopes that tensions in the South China Sea might ease have been short lived. Just weeks after the Philippines and China struck a deal to try to stop dangerous confrontations at Second Thomas Shoal, a new flashpoint has emerged.
Over recent weeks, Manila has accused Chinese personnel of ramming its boats, blasting them with water canon and firing flares at its aircraft, with incidents often centred on a new location, an atoll called Sabina Shoal. It comes as tensions in the South China Sea, a strategically important waterway that links the Indian and Pacific Oceans, were already at their highest in a decade.
A series of escalating incidents has provoked warnings that an error of judgment at sea could inadvertently spiral into armed conflict. This would risk drawing the US, a Philippine ally, into confrontation with China.
Analysts warn the political stakes for both Manila and Beijing around Sabina Shoal could lead to an even more drawn-out struggle.
“Both countries have a lot to lose if they give up, in part because they both made such strong statements,” said Ray Powell, director of SeaLight, a maritime transparency project at Stanford University.
Tensions at Sabina have been growing since April, when the Philippines sent its coast guard ship the BRP Teresa Magbuana to monitor the area, in response to concerns China may be attempting to reclaim land at the shoal. In turn, China has steadily increased its presence at the shoal, with anywhere between two dozen to 40 vessels present at a time, said Powell.
Chinese state media reported suggestions the Philippines was trying to use the Teresa Magbuana to forge a “quasi-military-grounding” at the shoal – drawing parallels with the BRP Sierra Madre, a rusting second world war-era ship that was deliberately grounded at Second Thomas Shoal by the Philippines in 1999.
The Philippines points out that both Sabina and Second Thomas shoals lie within its exclusive economic zone (EEZ), giving it special rights to build and construct in the area.
However, China rejects this, and claims much of the South China Sea as its own, despite an international tribunal Hague judgment rejecting its arguments.
“A de facto occupation of Sabina by another grounded ship would cross multiple lines that Beijing has tried to draw with Manila and present a real challenge in terms of how to respond without risking drawing in the United States,” said Harrison Prétat, deputy director and fellow with the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Sabina Shoal is important to the Philippines because it is close to Reed Bank, which is believed to be rich in oil and gas, and because it is the main staging ground for resupply missions to Second Thomas Shoal. Were China to take control of it, it could cut off resupplies from reaching Second Thomas, and potentially stop vessels reaching Thitu Island, a Philippine island in the South China Sea that is inhabited by about 400 civilians, said Collin Koh, senior fellow at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, of the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
Perhaps even more importantly for both sides, the shoal has huge symbolic importance.
With midterm elections next year in the Philippines, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr does not want to risk losing the shoal. He has vowed not to cede “one square inch of territory”. China’s leadership also does not want to be humbled by what it considers “a much smaller and weaker adversary”, said Koh. “For the ruling Communist party, for Xi Jinping, that is clearly going to be unworkable because it carries with it huge political costs,” he added.
The Philippines fears that, if it removes BRP Teresa Magbuana, Chinese vessels will take control of the site. “The ghost of the Scarborough Shoal incident back in 2012 continues to hold a very vivid memory,” said Koh. The Philippines withdrew from Scarborough Shoal more than a decade ago, as part of a deal reached after a two-month standoff with China. China, however, did not pull back and has in effect controlled the feature ever since.
‘You have to be prepared for the possibility someone will get killed’
The Philippines has some advantages at Sabina Shoal. Its ship, BRP Teresa Magbuana, has a helipad, allowing airlift supplies. It’s also harder for Chinese vessels to block access because the shoal is far more open than other features, said Powell. “That means that China has to keep more vessels deployed at all times in order to watch all approaches,” he added. Sabina is also further away from Mischief Reef, one of the main islands Beijing has occupied and militarised.
But, ultimately, Philippines has no permanent presence at Sabina Shoal, giving China far less reason to agree to a compromise.
As confrontations become more normalised, the likelihood of errors of judgment increases.
Marcos Jr said earlier this year that if any Filipino serviceman or citizen were killed by a wilful act in the South China Sea, this would be “very, very close to what we define as an act of war, and therefore, we would respond accordingly”.