The war in the Middle East is taking a different turn now. After converting the entire Gaza strip to rubbles, Israel has now moved to Lebanon where it not only killed the entire top hierarchy of Hezbollah but also launched a deadly ground offensive in south Lebanon killing scores and displacing millions. The punitive attacks have started since Hamas attacked Israel on 7th October 2023 and is going to complete one year in the next couple of days. Over 40,000 lives are lost in Gaza alone, but the hostilities are yet to come to a halt.
The war in the Middle East is taking a different turn now. After converting the entire Gaza strip to rubbles, Israel has now moved to Lebanon where it not only killed the entire top hierarchy of Hezbollah but also launched a deadly ground offensive in south Lebanon killing scores and displacing millions. The punitive attacks have started since Hamas attacked Israel on 7th October 2023 and is going to complete one year in the next couple of days. Over 40,000 lives are lost in Gaza alone, but the hostilities are yet to come to a halt.
The most important and difficult-to-understand perspective in the entire sequence of events is the silence of the Arab world. The Jewish-Arab enmity is well known to the world as the two communities have been constantly fighting for over fifteen centuries. Israel, since its inception, had been at war with the Arab world and fought more than a dozen major conflicts over the past. The blood on the holy lands has not stopped flowing yet the current conflict delivered many surprises to us. Arab diaspora is not only silent but is indirectly helping Israel against its fellow Arab countries, a trend which is extremely difficult to understand.
This time, there were no takers for over 40,000 civilian deaths in Gaza. No Arab country was bothered by large-scale destruction in Gaza and Lebanon. None of the Arab countries even came forward to help their fellow Palestinians and Lebanese brothers. Egypt had shown cold shoulder to the Palestinian refugees fleeing through the Rafah border while refusing to accept them. Some of the countries like UAE were so quick to condemn October 7, 2023, attack in Israel that it came as a shock. Out of the 22 members of the Arab League, not a single one was found to be standing in favour of Palestine or against Israeli invasion which was contrary to the centuries-old statement of Arabian philosopher Ibn Khaldun (1332-1406) that “Arabs have agreed to always disagree”.
This time the Arab support to Palestine and Gaza was limited to a few peaceful protests across their cities with no aggressive statements from their governments. This had never happened and is coming as a surprise to the entire world. Let us decode the reasons behind Arab silence on the ongoing war in the Middle East in five easy points.
1. Shift in Arab Identity – Till about a decade back, the entire Arab world was united in several kinds of identities like Baladiyyah (Local identity like the one followed by Bedouins of Sahara), Wataniyaah (Watan or National Identity), Qaumiyyah(Qaum level or ethnic Arab identity) and Deeniyyaah (Deen or Islamic Identity). Out of these four, the Deeniyyaahor Islamic Identity was the one which bonded the entire Arab world together and hence the entire Arab Diaspora was standing behind Palestine and naturally opposing their archrival Jews. But things changed after the Arab Spring in 2010 as the mass uprising in various Arab countries enforced Wataniyaahor the National Identity over the Deeniyyaahbecause of which the leaders of these countries especially the ones in North Africa started to prefer their country above the religion which somehow affected the Arab support to Palestine. Palestine which was the central Arab cause and an important reason to unite the Arab diaspora till a few decades back is now on the back seat and the leaders of Arab countries now prefer building their own nation first.
2. Israeli diplomacy & the Abrahamic Accord of 2020–While Jordan has already signed a peace deal with Israel in 1994, various other Arab countries like UAE, Morrocco, Sudan and Bahrain signed the Abrahamic Accord in 2020 recognizing Israel as a sovereign state and initiated diplomatic relationship with Tel Aviv. Israel too was quick in offering an olive branch. This was a positive step towards normalcy and in due course of time, other Arab countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait & Oman were supposed to join this accord. This was in the interest of everyone and would have helped all the Middle Eastern countries grow together. At this crucial time when things are progressing to a new normal, no Arab country wants to be sidelined and left from this opportunity. Standing by the side of Palestine means standing against Israel and the USA.
3. Dwindling Arab economy –The economies of most of the prominent Arab countries are taking a hit. While Petrodollars are becoming a matter of history, the Arab monopoly over crude prices has been shattered after Russia started supplying cheap oil to the world. At the same time, their oil reserves are depleting very fast, and they have to look for an alternative before it is too late. Nearly all of the Arab countries with oil reserves are developing tourist infrastructure and alternative businesses to cope up in the future. Some who are not lucky to have oil are struggling badly. For example, Egypt itself is having over $165Bn foreign debt primarily from Western countries and the IMF out of which $43bn is due to be paid this year. Each of the 22 Arab League member countries has their own economic problems and depends upon the West directly or indirectly hence they are in no position to antagonize their European or American counterparts where most of the businesses are controlled by Jews.
4. Diplomacy in the Arab world and getting away with a hardliner image – As said, while Arab countries are struggling economically, they have to project an image which is acceptable to the world so that they can not only attract investors from the world but also invite tourists and ultimately strengthen their economies. To achieve this, they must come out of their hardliner image first. If we see the current trends in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other Arab countries, they are making tough decisions to get away with an Islamic hardliner image. Supporting Palestine and opposing Israel somehow hinders their efforts in doing the same.
5. The US Factor – An important factor is the US factor and American hegemony. Arab world has been watching what America did in Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan,Syria & other parts of the Arabian Peninsula. No one wants to get in the American way and antagonize Uncle Sam. Moreover, the American Military presence in the Middle East has been an all-time high with its entire Central Command and some additional troops including two full carrier strike groups. Another Carrier Strike group is on the way along with additional troops. Arab world knows well not to come in the American way which is standing firm with Israel and is poised to act against anyone not falling in line. Arab countries are no exception and hence instead of supporting Palestine or fighting Israel, they have gone into wait-and-watch mode.
The way the Arab world has shown a cold shoulder to their Palestinian, Lebanese, Yemeni and Iranian brothers is a surprise to the world. Although this was expected and has its reasons, this is a new normal. While it shows unique faultlines in the Arab world, it also shows how Arab countries are now weighing their country and its interest over religion.