Manipur has been in the news and the national consciousness now for over 17 months. The Manipur high court order of March 27, 2023 was only the trigger behind decades of mistrust. The demand for an inner line permit system that began in Manipur over two decades ago, can in some way be termed as the beginning of the current crisis. It culminated in passing of the three controversial bills in the Manipur Assembly in August 2015, which had eventually led to violent protests in Churach-andpur, which resulted in the loss of nine lives in police firing. The bodies of those killed were buried after 632 days after many rounds of negotiations between the government and multiple stakeholders.
Peace had thereafter returned to Manipur. The overall strides in development that took place in Manipur for about a decade since 2015 further reinforced the belief that Manipur was now on its path to greater glory.
All that changed on May 3, 2023, when violence broke out between the Meiteis and Kukis of the state; a situation that continues with sporadic spikes in violence and intermittent calm. It is a small state with a population of just 0.1 per cent and 0.15 per cent of the current estimated populations of Delhi and Mumbai respectively, but deserves greater understanding considering its geo-strategic and geo-economic importance, as also for the sake of the people of the state who are under extreme stress and duress.
The biggest challenge faced is disinformation in the form of false videos, doctored videos and videos that depict only a part of a given incident. The Anglo-Kuki War Memorial being set afire, the discovery of the decapitated body of a woman found in a suitcase, the security forces shielding one particular community are some factors, to name a few. There have also been some truthful videos like the two helpless women being paraded on the streets or for that matter ghastly videos of shootings at point-blank range and of decapitating innocents. All these and word of mouth stories (which are often untrue) have fuelled anger across both the communities. Every false video or narrative results in cycles of violence that leaves the security forces at their wit’s end. It is a situation no security force in the country has ever faced before.
At no other place since the independence of our nation have we witnessed such mass weaponisation of society at large. It is not just the weapons and ammunition that have been looted from police armouries that is disconcerting. It is also the weapons that the Arambai Tengol, UNLF(P), all the other valley-based insurgent groups and the Kuki militants openly flaunt and move around with impunity. The easy availability of weapons and ammunition in Myanmar makes the situation even more grim. A recent video of a gun similar to an artillery gun being towed and then fired, as also inputs of many other new improvised mortars, rockets and the locally made “pumpis”, makes the future look daunting for not just the security forces, but also ordinary citizens. The immense hardships that the common man is already facing with all these weaponised people indulging in extortion and kidnappings is extremely worrisome.
The recent events in the neighbourhood, both in Myanmar and Bangladesh, are disturbing. The Myanmar Army today has only one military post opposite Manipur under its control, and none opposite Mizoram, as a consequence of the fighting there. It has resulted in a huge refuge influx, largely in Mizoram and to a lesser extent in Manipur. The influence of radicals currently in Bangladesh also poses a threat insofar as reactivation of camps of the Northeast-based insurgent groups is concerned.
The Central security forces, largely the Indian Army, the Assam Rifles and the paramilitary forces like the CRPF, have been at the forefront in preventing violence, moving people to safety, providing relief, including the establishment of relief camps, recovering weapons, arresting militants and troublemakers, destroying bunkers; all of which under conditions that were largely hostile and at times under great provocation. After some initial hiccups, the state police has also been instrumental in operating in total sync with the Central security forces. The criticism against the Assam Rifles has been unwarranted. The unbiased and selfless task that the officers and soldiers have undertaken has helped to keep the situation under control. Calls for removal of all Central forces as a panacea for restoring normalcy, made by some, is impractical. In a state where people are polarised to the extent that they are, expecting the state police to handle the situation on their own is a tough ask. This is not to cast aspersions on the state police or undermine its role, but to highlight the local pressures that they are forced to operate under.
The present situation was a fallout of the demand for Scheduled Tribe status for the Meiteis, and against that is the Kuki demand for a separate administration; now seeking the status of a Union territory. It will be impractical for the Centre to give in to either, since one will inflame passions even in the Naga regions leading to even more violence, while the latter would lead to many more such fissiparous demands across the Northeast: the ENPO demands in Nagaland, the Dima Hasao & Cachar regional demands in Assam or the demands of South Arunachal Pradesh people for a separate administration, etc. It is therefore necessary for both the communities to see reason in stopping the ongoing violence, to be realistic in their demands and come to the negotiating table.
There are many steps that need to be taken to restore normal life. But the beginning for that has to be by the people of Manipur. The civil society organisations, the women’s organisations, the village elders, the youth, the armed cadres and all others, cutting across affiliations, have to just take a look at pre-May 3, 2023 when Manipur was on a glorious path of socio-economic development. Manipur shall remain the linchpin for our “Act East” policy and the land bridge to our outreach to Asean and Quad and the countries of Southeast and East Asia.
Manipur, which got its name during the reign of King Garib Nawaz, 400 years ago in 1724, is and shall remain a precious jewel of our country that should be in the mind space and prayers of all citizens of our country.