India’s relations with Canada have spiralled downwards ever since the June 18, 2023 murder of “Khalistan” activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar at Surrey, British Columbia. However, the increasing dissonance over Canada’s handling of “Khalistan” supporters dates back from the February 2018 visit to India by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The dinner invitation by the Canadian high commissioner to Jaspal Singh Atwal, convicted in a 1986 plot to kill a Punjab Cabinet minister, only vitiated the atmosphere.
The current fracas dates from Prime Minister Trudeau’s allegations on Indian complicity in the Nijjar murder, in his address in the Canadian Parliament on September 18, 2023. He claimed that Canada was pursuing “credible allegations”, while India sought proof. This defence did not anticipate an American sub-plot. Even before the Nijjar killing, the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) was monitoring Nikhil Gupta, shopping for assassins to eliminate troublesome members of the Indian diaspora. On June 9, 2023, DEA agents filmed a part-payment to eliminate Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, who was Nijjar’s lawyer and leader of the Sikhs for Justice (SFJ) group, in New York. The US transaction gave the local agencies jurisdiction. DEA agents, masquerading as killers-on-hire, then recorded conversations not only with Gupta but his alleged Indian handlers.
Gupta was arrested in the Czech Republic on June 30, 2023 and subsequently extradited to the United States. India then faced two nations levelling charges of official Indian complicity in targeting their citizens for what they see as political activism and India alleges is secessionist activity or even terrorism. This differentiated approach of engaging the United States and berating Canada was unsustainable. It assumed that the Americans, with more stake in engaging India and less dependence on “Khalistan” activists, would abandon Canada. The strategy discounted close relations between the intelligence agencies of the US and Canada and a shared commitment to protect their citizens against foreign designs to kill or manipulate them. Both societies are based on mass immigration and supportive of diversity. The proof that India sought from Canada was initially hidden in the US operation to catch Nikhil Gupta. The US shared information with Canada only incrementally as the operation proceeded. Finally, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) conducted a thorough investigation, leading to multiple arrests in the Nijjar killing. The US advised India consistently to cooperate with Canada to unravel the conspiracy.
The standoff worsened after the September 12 meeting between Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Justin Trudeau at Vientiane, on the sidelines of the Asean summit. The statements issued by the two sides after the meeting betrayed discord and conflicting claims. The national security officials of both met nations in Singapore three days later, to discuss the Canadian “proof”. They again strongly disagreed and a public spat became inevitable.
Canada claims it sought a waiver of the diplomatic immunity of the top Indian diplomats, including the high commissioner, to allow interrogation. India obviously rejected that and prepared for the inevitable. While Canada says it declared the diplomats who were “persons of interest” as persona non grata and thus expelled, India claimed their withdrawal. Similarly, India too gave the marching orders to an equal number of six Canadian diplomats based in India.
With Prime Minister Trudeau himself making a public statement, the path for a compromise appears to be remote. However, India is sharing, with the US, action taken against a mid-level RAW official. The Washington Post published fresh revelations that Canada named even the Indian home minister as overseeing the conspiracy. It also mentioned the charge that India used the Lawrence Bishnoi gang, the leader of which is detained in a Gujarat jail. Multiple questions arise on the path forward.
First, it has been a mistake to treat the Canadian episode involving the Nijjar killing as distinct from the Pannun elimination plot in the United States. The DEA entrapment and recordings show both plots being a part of a larger alleged conspiracy to target troublesome Sikh diaspora members, irrespective of their location or nationality. As the US trial of Nikhil Gupta proceeds, more details of the plot will emerge. So, it will be difficult to bury it using jingoism and threats.
Second, there is a domestic political dimension in Canada that is unlikely to disappear overnight as Mr Trudeau’s term is till October 2025. New Delhi’s hope that his minority government will collapse soon is just wishful thinking. A no-confidence motion moved by the Opposition Conservative Party failed on September 25. In a House of 338 MPs, 211 voted against it. Although the New Democratic Party, led by Jagmeet Singh, with 25 members, had quit the ruling coalition, they are still unprepared to pull the government down. If anything, the confrontation with India, over targeting elements of the Sikh diaspora, keeps the fourth largest party behind Mr Trudeau.
Third, the outcome of the US presidential election will be known after November 5. Kamala Harris may be more prone to support the Canadian defence of its citizens. The fact that a Sikh delegation was welcomed to the White House before Prime Minister Modi’s visit for the Quad summit in Wilmington, Delaware, in September shows the complex dimensions of what India sees as a black-and-white matter. How Donald Trump will treat the issue cannot be predicted.
It is true that Canadian people are more concerned over housing unaffordability and the rising cost of living than the shenanigans of a fringe of the Sikh diaspora. Mr Trudeau’s popularity has dropped from 63 per cent, when first elected in 2013, to 28 per cent in June. A Leger poll sees the Conservatives ahead of ruling Liberals by 45 per cent to 25 per cent. But a year is a lifetime for political fortunes to fluctuate. It is also diplomatically unwise to treat a G-7 country like Pakistan.
The core issues are: Canada getting a handle on gangster-Khalistan elements, when the bulk of the eight lakh Sikh diaspora does not back them. But episodes like the Nijjar killing weaken the moderate elements. The US entrapment proves some Indian role. Counter-violence is not a solution, as it reflects a lack of imagination in handling the Sikh diaspora. It is worth remembering that when Russia went after dissidents in the UK, the G-7 response was sharp.
Reputational damage can be more costly than fake Khalistan referendums by those that no longer live or desire to live in Punjab.
Flailing at a ghost can cause collateral damage. Prime Minister Narendra Modi needs a new team and fresh thinking on relations with nations with a bulk of the two million Sikh diaspora.