Lebanon’s Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, welcomed the agreement, thanking the US and France for their crucial role in reaching the truce
A 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah began at 7.30 am (IST) on Wednesday (November 27, 2024). Brokered by the US and France, the agreement brought hope for stability as it appeared to hold steady. Following the announcement, people from both sides began returning to their homes near the border—an area devastated by 14 months of intense fighting.
Lebanon’s Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, welcomed the agreement, thanking the US and France for their crucial role in reaching the truce. Antonio Guterres, UN Secretary-General, said the ceasefire was the “first sign of hope” after many months of Middle East violence and unrest.
The ceasefire is seen as a critical step towards ending a war that has claimed thousands of lives and displaced over a million people. About two days into the truce, Beirut, Lebanon’s capital, which had endured heavy bombardment, erupted in joy. Civilians made their way to southern Lebanon, the epicenter of the conflict, which escalated further in September when Israel intensified its attacks on Hezbollah.
Hezbollah, a strong militia backed by Iran, and Israel continued fighting until just before the ceasefire agreement. Israel carried out several attacks on Beirut, including areas previously untouched, while Hezbollah launched drones and missiles at Israel.
Biden, from the White House, said the truce would “end the devastating conflict”. The US—besides Egypt, Turkey and Qatar—would push anew for an Israel-Hamas truce in Gaza Hamas is one more militant group sponsored by Iran.
Hezbollah agreed to a deal drafted by the US a few days ago and the agreement was finalized after Israel’s security Cabinet approved it on Tuesday evening. Despite opposition from several Israeli politicians who wanted to continue fighting and demolish Hezbollah totally, Netanyahu encouraged his colleagues to agree to the ceasefire.
WHY ISRAEL ACCEPTED THE AGREEMENT
Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel, pointed out three reasons why he had agreed to the truce:
i) Shift focus to Iran
ii) Give the Israeli forces time for rest and resupply, and
iii) Reduce conflict by taking either Hamas or Hezbollah out of the war
Indeed, Hezbollah had opened another front to support Hamas just days after Hamas launched its attack and Israel started bombing Gaza.
OTHER FACTORS FOR ISRAEL’S DECISION
1. There seems to be some disagreement within Israel’s leadership. Former defence minister Yoav Gallant, along with the IDF chief of staff, pushed for a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon. Gallant questioned Netanyahu’s goals and repeatedly asked for a clear plan for what came next.
Gallant was fired less than a week after openly disagreeing with the prime minister, but it is clear that the ideas he voiced, representing the views of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), have influenced decisions to some extent. Far-Right national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, the only one to oppose the ceasefire in the Cabinet vote, has always disagreed with Gallant’s views. Leaders from northern Israeli towns also opposed the ceasefire until the last moment.
2. Israel has been successful in battles in Lebanon, but the overall outcomes have often been disappointing. A long-term military stay in Lebanon would strain the IDF. This might be why Israel had kept its goals vague on October 1, making it easier to withdraw once Hezbollah was weak enough for people in northern Israel to return home.
If Israel continued to stay in southern Lebanon, it could give Hezbollah an opportunity to regain support within the country. By mid-2023, many Lebanese were turning against Hezbollah due to its actions and influence. However, prolonged Israeli military presence could shift public opinion, thus uniting people against Israel and making them more supportive of Hezbollah as a defender of Lebanon.
3. Despite losing all its top leaders and much of its infrastructure, Hezbollah was still able to attack Israel until the very end. Hezbollah launched its biggest attack on Israel, firing 250 rockets, less than two days before the ceasefire. This happened after an Israeli strike on central Beirut killed at least 29 people, including health workers.
Although the IDF was stronger, Hezbollah’s ability to fight would have led to a longer war. The IDF pushed for a ceasefire shortly after reaching the Litani river, which could be seen as a symbolic win.
TRUCE IMPACT: ISRAEL-LEBANON BORDER
The key factor behind all of Israel’s actions over the past year (2023) is the impact of October 7, which shattered its sense of security. This led Israel to launch heavy attacks1first in Gaza and then in Lebanon. International pressure on Israel has been strong. UN experts called Israel’s actions ‘genocide’ and the International Court of Justice urged Israel to leave occupied territories and the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu.
This did not stop Israel from continuing its actions in Gaza, as it saw this as its ultimate effort to ensure total security and prevent future threats, such as a new ‘never-again’ mission. Netanyahu’s reputation as ‘Mr Security’ has been damaged and Israel continues to view all Iran-backed groups as a single threat.
Interestingly, the situation after the ceasefire is very similar to how things were after Israel’s 34-day invasion of Lebanon in 2006. This time, the conflict lasted 57 days. In 2006, after the ceasefire, the Lebanese Army, which is part of the government and not linked to Hezbollah, was put in charge of the area between the Litani river and the Blue Line. By August 2006, they had moved into this zone with weapons and troop trucks.
In 2024, the US joined the new ‘tripartite+’ arrangement, setting it apart from the 2006 situation. However, the US clearly stated that it would not send combat troops, a decision that, possibly, suits the incoming Donald Trump Administration in Washington, DC.
Hezbollah is still deeply involved in Lebanon’s society and government, with 15 members in Parliament and support from the Speaker. Despite Western involvement in monitoring the ceasefire, Hezbollah can now focus on rebuilding its support in society and politics, after once again forcing Israel to withdraw, just as in 2006.
On Tuesday, Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah declared that their resistance would continue despite the ceasefire. He also stated that the same fighters who were involved in the conflict would now take part in rebuilding efforts, showing their commitment to both “defending, and supporting”, their community.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE REGION?
1. Lebanon and Hezbollah agreeing to allow even a limited US presence in South Lebanon was not a decision made independently. It, possibly, involved discussions with Iran, since Hezbollah has strong ties with Tehran. This is clear because Hezbollah’s leader, Naim Qassem, publicly accepted the US-proposed ceasefire about a week ago, which would not have happened without first consulting Iran. This highlights the influence Tehran has on Hezbollah’s major decisions.
Iran is in talks with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), sending signals to the US about easing sanctions and building stronger ties with its Arab neighbours. For now, it no longer needs to worry about the major threat to its biggest ally (Hezbollah) in the region, which seemed serious in early-October. Iran supports Hezbollah mainly to create a military buffer between itself and Israel, even though it says the support is for the Palestinian cause.
2. Israel can now be satisfied that the total focus of its armed forces is not just on Gaza’s Hamas, but also Iranian proxies in Syria, including Hezbollah and allied troops, Iraq and Yemen—for the first time since its Gaza campaign began.
Netanyahu warned Syrian President Bashar al-Assad that he was “playing with fire”. Meanwhile, Iran seems to be showing some caution as it prepares for the Trump Administration.
Israel now has two options: it can continue attacking Iran-backed groups or respond cautiously if Iran does the same. For now, Israel is focusing on Gaza, where the death toll has reached around 45,000. In Lebanon, the issues that caused this war are still unresolved.
It will take much more time and effort before peace is fully secured in Lebanon and northern Israel.
(The author of this article is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: girishlinganna@gmail.com)
(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author’s own and do not reflect those of DNA)