These migrants may be harder to locate and detain, especially in cities and states that consider themselves safe havens for undocumented people
US President-elect Donald Trump plans to deport 11 million people from the country, according to media reports. However, this raises many questions:
1. How will the government locate all these individuals?
2. Where will they be kept while their cases are handled?
3. Will their home countries agree to take them back? and
4. Will lawmakers approve the large amounts of money needed for this plan?
The Morning, a daily news publication, has been publishing a series about the policies Donald Trump and his supporters in Congress aim to implement next year. Today’s article focuses on his plans for large-scale deportations.
A HERCULEAN UNDERTAKING
Trump’s plan is already clear in general terms. According to The New York Times (NYT), he intends to use the military and law enforcement to detain millions of people living illegally in the United States. The government plans to keep undocumented migrants in detention centres while reviewing the details of their cases. After that, it will arrange to send them back to their home countries or to other places willing to accept them.
But all the details are not clear yet. Here are six unanswered questions:
WHO WILL BE TARGETED?
1. Trump’s advisers say they will focus on deporting migrants with criminal records or past orders—a legal decision requiring someone to leave the country—for removal and these individuals number in the hundreds of thousands. The federal government already knows the whereabouts of many of these individuals due to their past interactions with law enforcement, making it possible to deport a large number of them quickly.
2. Trump also plans to deport undocumented migrants who have no criminal record, except the fact that they entered the US illegally.
3. Trump has also mentioned that he will target people with Temporary Protected Status, a programme that lets certain migrants from specific countries stay in the US legally.
These migrants may be harder to locate and detain, especially in cities and states that consider themselves safe havens for undocumented people. These areas have refused to cooperate with most federal deportation efforts.
WILL THE COURTS APPROVE?
Undocumented migrants have legal rights, so their cases usually need to go through the courts. However, immigration courts have backlogs, with cases often taking years to be processed. Trump’s officials want to use arcane laws, such as the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, to bypass the usual legal process. This will possibly lead to lawsuits similar to those that blocked Trump’s immigration policies during his first term.
These legal challenges could delay, or stop, his plans if courts rule against them. Trump has two advantages: the courts, particularly the Supreme Court, are now more supportive of conservative views than they were during his first term. In the context of the US, conservatives often support such policies as lower taxes, a strong national defence and a focus on individual responsibility.
The Supreme Court has also decided that the president has wide authority over immigration matters.
WHERE WILL THE MIGRANTS BE KEPT?
Currently, officials do not have enough space to house tens of thousands, let alone hundreds of thousands, of migrants. The government will need to build, purchase, or lease more detention centres to accommodate them.
WILL OTHER COUNTRIES COOPERATE?
Some countries, such as Venezuela, refuse to accept deportation flights from the US. Other countries may be unwilling to take in large numbers of migrants, especially those with criminal records. The Administration could try to get other countries to cooperate by offering trade deals or threatening tariffs, but this would need careful diplomatic efforts.
WILL CONGRESS APPROVE FUNDING?
The American Immigration Council estimates that Trump’s plan will cost $88 billion per year, almost twice the budget on which the National Institutes of Health run and four times that of NASA. Trump has proposed declaring an emergency to use military funds for deportations. The plan is so costly that Congress will, probably, need to approve additional funding for it and the Bill may need support from Democrats to be passed in the Senate.
One goal of mass deportations is to create fear among migrants, hoping that some will choose to leave the US on their own. However, it is unclear how many people will do this. With all these challenges, Trump may not be able to carry out the millions of deportations he plans each year. However, he will, possibly, deport more people than President Biden did. At their highest points, the Bush and Obama administrations managed to deport 400,000 people a year. In contrast, Biden has deported fewer than 200,000 people in most years.
According to The New York Times, Trump and his supporters claim their plan will boost the economy and focus on upholding the law. Stephen Miller, one of Trump’s main immigration advisers, told The Times last year that American workers would be offered higher wages and better benefits to fill these jobs. Critics argue that mass deportations will create turmoil in Latino communities and lead to labour shortages in such industries as agriculture, food-processing and construction, which could result in higher prices.
Critics also question whether the cost of mass deportations is justified. The American Immigration Council estimated that for the same amount of money spent on deporting all undocumented migrants, the US could build nearly three million homes.
According to Reuters, Donald Trump plans to take immediate action on his first day if re-elected. He intends to deploy National Guard troops to the US-Mexico border and declare a national emergency to access funds for restarting the construction of the border wall. This move is part of his broader strategy to address issues related to border security.
The Economic Times reported that Trump had announced plans to bring back his 2019 ‘Remain in Mexico’ policy. This programme required some asylum-seekers trying to enter the US through the southern border to stay in Mexico while their cases were being processed.
According to Reuters, a source has shared that Trump’s transition team is exploring the possibility of using executive powers to prevent migrants caught crossing the border illegally from applying for asylum. During a campaign event in Arizona, Trump spoke out against an asylum ban introduced by Biden in June. He criticized the policy and promised to overturn it if elected.
Trump argued that the policy would not effectively secure the border, although it was similar to measures from his own presidency. These earlier policies were designed to discourage migrants and had significantly reduced the number of people caught crossing the border illegally. Trump has stated that he plans to detain all migrants caught crossing the border illegally or breaking immigration laws. He aims to end the ‘catch-and-release’ practice, where migrants are released while awaiting their immigration hearings.
In October, Trump announced plans to ask Congress for funding to hire 10,000 more Border Patrol agents, a significant boost to the current workforce. However, Harris criticized Trump for opposing a bipartisan border security Bill earlier this year, which could have added 1,300 agents to strengthen border enforcement.
Trump mentioned during the campaign that he might use tariffs to pressure China and other countries to prevent migrants from their nations from travelling to the US-Mexico border. He has also announced plans to introduce travel bans targeting people from specific countries or those holding certain beliefs. This would build on a policy approved by the Supreme Court in 2018.
In an October 2023 speech, Trump outlined regions that could face new travel bans if he was re-elected. He promised to block entry from such areas as the Gaza Strip, Libya, Somalia, Syria, Yemen and other places he believes pose a threat to US security. In his speech, Trump spoke about the conflict in Gaza and said he would block immigrants who support Hamas from entering the US. He also said he would deploy deportation officers to respond to pro-Hamas protests.
Trump had stated last year that he planned to stop granting automatic citizenship to children born in the US to immigrants who were in the country illegally. This is an idea he considered during his presidency. This action would go against the long-standing interpretation of a US constitutional amendment and would, possibly, face legal challenges. During his first term, Trump had significantly cut the number of refugees allowed into the US. He has also criticized Biden for increasing the number of refugee admissions.
(The author of this article is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: girishlinganna@gmail.com)
(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author’s own and do not reflect those of DNA)