The Syrian civil war began in 2011 during the wave of anti-government protests inspired by the Arab Spring
1.How has the situation in Syria changed this week? Who is involved? Why did the militants attack now?
Here’s what happened: Last week (Week 48), Islamist militants in northwest Syria launched a sudden attack on forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad, capturing significant territory in the process.
The Syrian civil war began in 2011 during the wave of anti-government protests inspired by the Arab Spring. By late 2016, the conflict had slowed down after the government regained control over most of the areas it had previously lost.
Arab Spring: The Arab Spring refers to a series of protests, uprisings, and revolutions that began in late 2010 and spread across many countries in the Arab world. People in countries like Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, and Yemen rose up to demand political reforms, greater freedoms, and an end to corruption and authoritarian rule. These movements were largely driven by frustration with poor governance, lack of jobs, and human rights abuses. While the protests led to some changes, such as the removal of leaders in countries like Tunisia and Egypt, they also resulted in prolonged conflicts in others, such as Syria and Yemen.
The situation in the Arab Republic had been mostly quiet, but true peace was never achieved. Recently, new fighting has broken out, ending the calm and restarting active conflict.
2.How has control in Syria changed over the past week?
In 2015, before Russian President Vladimir Putin sent troops to Syria, the Assad government was close to falling apart.
He had lost control of most major cities, holding on only to Damascus (the capital) and a few coastal cities where the Alawite community was dominant (a key group supporting the government).
There were many rebel and extremist groups involved, including the Free Syrian Army (FSA), Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Qaeda’s branch in Syria), and the Islamic State (IS).
Free Syrian Army (FSA) : The Free Syrian Army (FSA) was a group of Syrian rebels formed in 2011 to fight against the Assad government, aiming to bring democracy and end authoritarian rule in Syria.
The Islamic State (IS) controlled the eastern Syrian cities of Raqqa and Deir Ezzor, along with the historic city of Palmyra.
Jabhat al-Nusra and the Free Syrian Army controlled areas in Idlib, a region in northwest Syria.
Other armed groups controlled parts of Hama, Homs, and even some areas in Damascus. In the south, the regions of Daraa and Quneitra were also unstable and tense.
The Russian intervention was a key factor in changing the course of the civil war. While U.S.-backed Kurdish militias fought against the Islamic State (IS) in the east and in Kurdish border areas, the Syrian army, supported by Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, fought other rebel groups and regained control of lost areas.
By December 2016, over a year after Russia joined the conflict, the Syrian government recaptured Aleppo, the country’s second-largest city and former economic hub. Meanwhile, militants still controlled Idlib as the conflict slowed down.
3.Who are Kurdish Militias ?
Kurdish militias are armed groups formed by the Kurdish people, an ethnic group in the Middle East. In Syria, the most well-known Kurdish militia is the YPG (People’s Protection Units). They fought to protect Kurdish regions, often battling the Islamic State (IS) and working alongside U.S. forces during the conflict.
Kurdish militias, like the YPG, are not fully aligned with or entirely against President Bashar al-Assad. They have primarily focused on defending Kurdish areas and establishing autonomy in northeastern Syria. While they’ve occasionally clashed with Assad’s forces over control, their main goal is more autonomy, not necessarily overthrowing Assad. Their relationship with the government has been complex, shifting based on circumstances in the war.
The Kurdish region in Syria is primarily located in the northeast of the country. It includes areas like Hasakah , parts of Raqqa , and Deir Ezzor , as well as border towns like Kobani and Qamishli . This region is often referred to as Rojava (Western Kurdistan), where Kurdish communities have sought autonomy during the Syrian conflict.
4.What Led to the Rapid Advance of Idlib Rebels in Syria?
Last week (Week 48), rebels began an attack from Idlib. Their first goal, according to war monitors, was to take the western parts of Aleppo. However, after quickly forcing government forces out of Aleppo’s suburbs, they decided to expand their attack and move closer to the city itself.
In just a few days, the rebels took control of Aleppo and have now advanced into Hama, a key area for the government. In northeast Aleppo, they also seized land from Kurdish fighters. Within a week, the rebels from Idlib have more than doubled the areas they control.
5.Who are the main cast?
There are three main groups involved in Syria today:
i) The Syrian regime: This is the most powerful group, supported by Iran, Shia militias from Iraq, and Russia.
The Syrian regime refers to the government of Syria, led by President Bashar al-Assad. It is the ruling authority in the country, supported by allies like Russia, Shia militias from Iraq and lran, and opposes various rebel groups and militias in the ongoing conflict.
ii) The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF): A coalition of militias led by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), which controls the Kurdish region of Syria, known as Rojava.
From the start of the civil war, the Syrian regime and the YPG reached an understanding. The Kurds gained some level of autonomy, and both sides avoided attacking each other.
iii) The third key group in Syria is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) , the main anti-government force that controls the Idlib region.
HTS is a powerful jihadist group leading the fight against the Syrian regime.
● It works closely with the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), formerly known as the Free Syrian Army. The SNA is largely viewed as an ally or subordinate to HTS. Together, HTS and the SNA are leading the ongoing military offensive in the region.
6.What is HTS?
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is led by Abu Mohammad al-Joulani, a 42-year-old Syrian militant. In his early 20s, Joulani went to Iraq to fight against the American occupation in 2003 and became a member of al-Qaeda.
When Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi led al-Qaeda in Iraq, Joulani became one of his trusted deputies. After the Syrian civil war began, Baghdadi sent a group of al-Qaeda fighters to Syria to fight against President Assad and chose Joulani to lead them.
Joulani established a group called Jabhat al-Nusra. However, he later had a disagreement with Baghdadi. While Baghdadi wanted al-Nusra to merge with the Islamic State, Joulani wanted the group to remain an independent branch of al-Qaeda in Syria.
As the world turned its attention to the Islamic State, Joulani quietly strengthened his control over Idlib. While the Islamic State was eventually defeated and Baghdadi was killed, Joulani rose to become the leading figure in the fight against the Syrian regime.
He first renamed al-Nusra Front to Jabhat Fateh al-Sham. Later, the group’s name was changed again to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in an attempt to distance it from al-Qaeda. However, HTS has never given up its Islamist beliefs.
Rebels and jihadists who lost control of other areas moved to Idlib, as it became a safe haven for them.
Over time, Joulani and his group created a separate administration in Idlib. Although the U.S. considers Joulani a terrorist, he shifted, his focus after taking control of Idlib, stating that his fight was against President Assad, not the United States. Interestingly, despite the U.S. maintaining a military presence in eastern Syria, they have not launched any significant attacks against him.
7.What prompted the militants to carry out an attack at this time?
Joulani often stated that one of his main goals was to overthrow the Assad government. On the other hand, the Syrian regime aimed to attack Idlib and regain control of the area. However, launching a large-scale assault on Idlib, home to about 3 million people, would have been impossible without strong support from Russia.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan strongly objected to any attack on Idlib, warning that it could lead to a new wave of refugees crossing into Turkey.
During this period, Russia’s President Putin and Turkey’s President Erdogan formed an agreement. Russia pressured Syria into agreeing to a ceasefire, allowing Idlib to remain under the control of HTS and the SNA, a group backed by Turkey. This brought a fragile peace to the region, but tensions remained high.
The global political situation has changed significantly since then. On February 24, 2022, Russia began its war in Ukraine. Now, Moscow is deeply focused on this conflict and has pulled thousands of its troops out of Syria.
During the peak of Syria’s civil war, Qassem Soleimani, the influential Iranian General of the Quds Force, led efforts to organize and deploy Shia militias to fight against the militants opposing the Syrian government.
General Soleimani was killed by a U.S. strike in January 2020.
● Quds Forces are an elite unit of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, responsible for carrying out military operations and intelligence activities outside Iran, often supporting allies and proxy groups in conflict zones.
Over the past year, Israeli airstrikes in Syria have killed several high-ranking Iranian generals.
Hezbollah, which actively fought against rebels during the early stages of the civil war, is now focused on reorganizing itself after months of direct clashes with Israel.
Years of Israeli airstrikes in Syria have significantly weakened the positions of Iran, the Syrian regime, and Hezbollah in the region.
These geopolitical changes created an opening for the militants to launch their attack. Without strong support from Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia, Syria’s forces were left exposed.
Taking advantage of this weakness, the militants, reportedly supported by Turkey, quickly advanced and seized control of the entire city of Aleppo.
Is the regime in danger?
In 2016, it took the Assad regime four years to regain control of Aleppo. However, in a surprising turn of events, it only took four days for the city to fall to HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) militants. This is a major blow to the regime and highlights its vulnerability. On December 5, the militants advanced into Hama, a key city in central Syria. Their next likely target is Homs, which could further weaken the government’s hold on the region.
The sudden collapse of government forces in northern Syria has given new energy to smaller rebel groups in other parts of the country. These groups have started launching attacks on government positions, particularly in the southern regions. As a result, the regime now finds itself dealing with a renewed and intense civil war, with fighting breaking out on multiple fronts.
The regime is now facing a full-scale civil war once again. However, it’s too soon to count out President Assad. He has managed to survive a long and brutal civil war in the past. His government still has strong support in the coastal areas and among minority communities within the country, which could help him hold on to power.
After suffering early defeats, the regime is now working with Iran to bring in reinforcements. Thousands of fighters from Iraqi militias, like Kataib Hezbollah and the Badr Organisation, have already joined the fight. However, the regime’s failure to stop the militants from gaining ground is a serious warning sign for Damascus and shows how vulnerable they have become.
The militants see this as a big chance to take over more territory and grow their control. Syria now seems to be heading toward another long and violent period of conflict.
Latest Developments: Assad Flees as Rebels Take Control of Damascus
Rebels led by Islamist groups have announced that they have captured Damascus in a swift attack on 7th Dec late evening . President Bashar al-Assad has fled the country, bringing an end to five decades of Baath Party rule in Syria.
On Sunday, December 8, 2024, the head of a Syrian opposition war monitor reported that President Bashar al-Assad had fled the country to an unknown location. This comes as insurgents claimed they had entered Damascus after making rapid gains across Syria.
Rami Abdurrahman, from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, said that Assad had left Damascus on a flight.
Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali announced that he stayed in his home and was prepared to help ensure the government continues to function smoothly.
Meanwhile, rebel leader Ahmed al-Sharaa stated that no one was allowed to approach public institutions. He explained that these institutions would remain under the control of the “former Prime Minister” until they are officially handed over to the new authorities.
Opposition fighters have entered Damascus as the situation in Syria rapidly worsens. The Syrian Army retreated from major cities without putting up much of a fight.
This marks the first time opposition forces have reached Damascus since 2018, when Syrian troops regained control of areas around the capital after years of heavy fighting and a prolonged siege.
(The author of this article is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: girishlinganna@gmail.com)
(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author’s own and do not reflect those of DNA)