Emerging Economies Will Account For 75% Of Carbon Emissions By 2040: Rajiv Shah Of The Rockefeller Foundation


Rajiv Shah, president of The Rockefeller Foundation. Image: Amit VermaRajiv Shah, president of The Rockefeller Foundation. Image: Amit Verma

India’s growth trajectory has been extraordinary, but the disparity in inclusive growth is stark. Almost all the growth is driven by urban areas and key industries—finance, manufacturing, and information technology—leaving rural communities behind in the country’s economic transformation, says Rajiv Shah, president of The Rockefeller Foundation. For context, 70 percent of India’s population resides in rural areas.

The number one constraint to rural development worldwide, particularly in India, is consistent, low-cost access to productive power. The New York-based non-profit organisation, which has operated in India for over a century, has made progress in Rajasthan, deploying 59 mini-grids with over 106 megawatts of power. Each grid helps around 36,000 people. In Maharashtra, they’ve set up 200 grids and plan to deploy over 5,000 small-scale solar mini-grids.

During his recent visit to India, Shah spoke with Forbes India about the country’s progress in renewable energy, the impact of the tech boom on climate goals, working with Accredited Social Health Activists (ASHA) workers, and more. Edited excerpts:

Q. Are you installing these grids free of cost from your foundation?

No. We’ve worked to design the programmes and help governments implement them. These programmes allow developers, such as Tata Power or local farmers, to build solar installations and sell power on a commercial basis.

We assist with early technical work, programme design, and certain costs, particularly around planning, bidding, and selecting partners. We don’t cover the capital costs, as philanthropy alone can’t solve the problem in India. Commercial capital is necessary.

To illustrate, I met a farmer who developed a one-megawatt grid at a cost of around $400,000 (Rs 3.31 crore). Approximately 30 percent of this cost was covered by Government of India subsidy for capital installation, while the rest was financed commercially. The farmer and partners contributed about 20 percent of the cost in equity, with the remaining amount was raised through local debt.

This business model is successful, and the farmer is now generating significant income from the solar project. In fact, nearby farmers are interested in replicating this model.

Q. Can you tell us more about your partnership with Tata Power?

We have a project with Tata Power to build and scale thousands of microgrids. Tata Power has already built over 200 of them and continues to innovate, integrating biogas digesters and other solutions to reduce costs. Including Tata Power, we have around half a dozen similar partnerships. Additionally, we’re working with the government on largescale programmes that are crucial for India to achieve its goal of 500 gigawatts of renewable energy while ensuring equal opportunities for all. The main risk is that largescale projects will dominate, achieving numerical targets but failing to reach rural areas, farmers, and communities that are often left behind.

Q. How is your foundation helping the ASHA workers?

We’re helping ASHA workers by digitising their platform. Previously, they used paper-based registries to document their work, which was time-consuming and inefficient. Five years ago, we partnered with the Government of Rajasthan, UNICEF, and other partners to develop a digital solution.

The app has undergone several improvements and is now being upgraded in collaboration with the government. The new system will enable ASHA workers to access patient medical records, submit billing, and receive payments automatically.

We met with about two dozen ASHAs who were excited about the technology and its impact on their productivity. One worker mentioned that she can now visit over 300 households, up from 150, due to the increased efficiency. However, what they appreciated most was not having to carry heavy books.

Our long-term vision is to continue enhancing the platform, providing ASHA workers with more technical capabilities to support each household. India’s maternal, child, and neonatal health goals can only be achieved with a highly effective ASHA worker system connected to a robust primary care system.

Q. What are the challenges in transitioning India’s power mix from coal to renewable energy?

Coal will continue to play a major role in India’s power mix for the foreseeable future. In Maharashtra, for example, coal accounts for around 80 percent of the power mix. To reduce coal’s share, we must demonstrate the benefits of renewable energy.

Globally, we’ve learnt that communities won’t support transitioning their energy mix unless they see tangible benefits. In the US and elsewhere, this is a major challenge. In India, I’ve seen first hand the impact of solar grids on rural communities. These communities are fully invested in the benefits they’ve experienced.

I worry that communities without access to these benefits may not even be aware of their potential. We need to scale up our efforts rapidly and share the stories of how renewable energy is improving people’s lives.

One of my challenges is communicating the human impact of our work. Energy experts often focus on metrics like megawatts, gigawatts, and cost per kilowatt-hour. But we need to emphasise the real-life benefits, such as girls attending private school, women having more time for productive work, and families having hope for a better future. Our focus should be on the human impact of our investments in addressing climate change.

Q. How does India’s progress in renewable energy compare to the rest of the world?

Globally, most renewable energy adoption has occurred in wealthy industrial economies like the US, Europe, and China. India stands out as a success story in the emerging world, embracing renewables at scale.

Many other regions, such as Africa and parts of Latin America, have had limited access to renewable energy. In contrast, India has made progress, with notable mega solar projects. We’re adding around 40 gigawatts of new renewable energy capacity each year. To scale this further, India needs to develop a domestic supply chain for essential components and implement supportive policies. We’re working to address both these areas.

Q. How can emerging economies tackle climate change?

The real challenge lies in emerging economies, which will account for 75 percent of carbon emissions by 2040 if things don’t change dramatically. Developed economies like the US, Europe, and China have made big investments in greening their economies, but developing countries lack the same resources and technology.

India is an exception, with its large size, domestic talent, and commercial capital making it less dependent on global financial systems. Other countries, especially in Africa, are struggling with debt crises that limit their ability to invest in renewable energy. One potential solution is linking investments in green electrification to rural development.

The climate change problem exists because of industrial nations using coal and fossil fuels, which account for most of the cumulative emissions polluting our atmosphere.

It’s unfair to ask rapidly-growing countries to slow their growth or incur additional costs to combat climate change. Instead, solutions like solar mini-grids offer a way to accelerate growth, make it more inclusive, and bring electricity to rural communities at a lower cost.

This approach isn’t about shouldering a global burden; it’s a sound business case for investing in human opportunity and rural development worldwide, including in India and many other parts of the world.

Q. How does India’s growing tech industry impact its climate goals?

Investing in technology infrastructure is crucial for competitiveness, but it also creates massive energy needs. In the US, for example, energy demand projections were flat until AI emerged, changing the assumption dramatically. Data centres are now the primary constraint, with energy access being the main limitation.

In India, where energy demand was already expected to increase, the added demand from AI-based data centres will lead to exponential growth. This makes it even more critical to build a clean energy system that can provide affordable, 24/7 electricity to remain competitive. The increased demand does make it more challenging to achieve these goals.





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